Yes to reforms, No to NATO membership concessions: how the great war changed the moods of Ukrainians

What do Ukrainians think about the country’s movement to the EU and NATO during the war?

Who do they trust the most among foreign leaders?

Commissioned by the New Europe Centre, INFO SAPIENS LLC conducted the study on these and other issues. Below we some of the findings.

Reforms are relevant

Along with the EU candidate status, Ukraine received a number of recommendations from the European Commission in June 2022: a list of reforms that need to be implemented in seven areas for further advancement to the EU membership. Despite the war, Ukraine is demonstrating a good progress and has already implemented a large part of EU recommendations.

The question is how do Ukrainian citizens regard European integration at the time of war?

A survey commissioned by the New Europe Centre showed that Ukrainians are aware that implementation of the reforms is the central element of the country’s EU integration.

According to the survey, almost 40% of citizens believe that Ukraine was granted the EU candidate status, in particular, due to the progress in this sphere — the implemented reforms.

This is not the first time that Ukrainians have demonstrated foresight and commitment to reforms — responding to the New Europe Centre survey in 2021, 67% of citizens noted that it was important for Ukraine to continue pro-European reforms, even if the EU does not grant the country a membership perspective.

Now as Ukraine has gained a European perspective and candidate status, Ukrainians do not want to stop there — 73% of citizens believe it is right that the EU has set requirements for Ukraine to implement reforms needed for opening accession negotiations.

And while some of the respondents note that the EU should be more lenient towards Ukraine in the issue of reforms because of the war, 47% confidently state that reforms are in the interests of Ukraine itself and the EU should demand their implementation as soon as possible. This data shows that the citizens are aware that the EU accession is not the goal in itself, but that European integration is an instrument to introduce the best European standards and practices in Ukraine.

In particular, anti-corruption reform is important — increasing efforts of Ukraine in this area, including the appointments of SAPO and NABU heads, is one of the seven recommendations of the European Commission. According to the survey, more than half of the population (60.1%) support the pressure from the EU on Ukraine to tackle corruption. Only 19.5% of respondents say that it is not currently the main problem in Ukraine.

This kind of population sentiment should push the government not to use the war as an excuse to slow down corresponding reforms.

At that, most Ukrainians are aware that quality of laws is more important than speed in the EU accession process. 59% of citizens say that in order to approximate Ukraine’s law in line with EU acquis communautaire, Ukrainian government needs to prepare all the necessary laws as best as possible and hold all the necessary discussions, even if it takes a long time.

The opinion that the laws should be adopted as soon as possible, even if they will have to be revised later, is supported by only one third of the population — 36%.

Therefore, despite ambitious internal deadlines, for example implementation of the seven reforms by the beginning of 2023, the government should also not forget about the quality of the laws that are being adopted and follow the recommendations of expert community and the EU, as this is what the citizens expect.

The law on selection of judges to the Constitutional Court, which was adopted six months after Ukraine received the EU candidate status is a vivid example, as the Venice Commission, the EU and the Ukrainian expert community have some remarks about it.

Without NATO or without you?

Population sentiment regarding Ukraine’s accession to NATO have changed several times during the war. A week after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the level of support of this decision surged to record-high 76%.

At the same time, emotionally offensive statements in regards to NATO were made during the first weeks of the war in Ukraine, which discredited the Alliance to an extent.

At the end of March 2022, the Ukrainian side signalled its readiness to start peace talks with Russia, offering that Ukraine would not access NATO in exchange for Russia withdrawing its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine. It was then that the support of NATO accession dropped to 68%.

Seven months into the war, in October this year, a new record level of support for Ukraine’s accession to NATO was recorded in Ukraine — 83%.

In the view of certain volatility of population sentiment, we at the New Europe Centre decided to ask Ukrainians how conscious and sustainable this choice is. The survey showed that more than two-thirds of Ukrainians (69%) do not consider it possible to start peace talks on such conditions.

Therefore, the war did not force Ukrainians to refuse NATO integration.

At the same time, according to the survey, Ukrainians are optimistic about Ukraine’s further progress towards EU membership despite the war — 62% of respondents believe that Ukraine will be able to start EU accession negotiations before the war ends.

The majority of citizens also believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in the short or medium term: 55% of Ukrainians believe that this will happen in the next 1-5 years. 27% prefer not to name a particular time frame, optimistically choosing the option “as soon as the war is over”.

More than half of Ukrainians believe that the war served as a certain catalyst of our movement towards EU membership – 55.2% of respondents said that Ukraine received the EU candidate status because of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Tell me who your friend is

The survey conducted by New Europe Centre showed an overall positive attitude of Ukrainians not only towards the European integration of our country, but also to the EU. Among all international organizations and associations, Ukrainians trust the EU the most — 84% of citizens.

Probably, this is due to the fact that in addition to economic and humanitarian assistance, the EU has also shown leadership in the field of security and defence: the provision of weapons to Ukraine is carried out through the European Peace Facility, it was the EU that launched a military training mission for the Ukrainian armed forces, etc.

At the same time, Ukrainians believe that this sympathy and trust are mutual: 23% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine received candidate status this summer because the EU needs Ukraine, and 39% believe that it happened due to the reforms implemented. NATO (76%) and G7 (71%) are also in the top three of Ukrainian sympathies.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also among the top three officials Ukrainians trust the most – 73%.

The President of Poland has been winning over public opinion in Ukraine for the second year in a row — 87% of citizens trust him (compared to 52% in 2021).

US President Joseph Biden (79%) is second. In general, there is a significant increase in trust to foreign leaders compared to 2021.

At the same time, it can be assumed that the top three leaders could be slightly displaced by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who Ukrainians respect a lot. It is noteworthy, however, that the new head of the British government, Rishi Sunak, ranks fourth — 64% of Ukrainians trust him. These data may indicate that Ukrainians are aware that support for Ukraine in the face of a full-scale invasion is provided by the states, and not personally by their leaders. Therefore, the UK will remain a friend to Ukraine, regardless of who heads the government.

Putin and Lukashenko are the foreign leaders that Ukrainians distrust the most for the second year in a row — 97% and 94% of respondents.

A large proportion of Ukrainians also distrust Xi Jinping (73%) and Viktor Orban (69%) — compared to 2021, distrust of these leaders has tripled.

Ukrainians also began to trust Recep Tayyip Erdogan less (the level of distrust increased by 27%) and Emmanuel Macron (by 14%). In 2022, the level of trust to foreign leaders depends on what statements these leaders make about the Russian-Ukrainian war and what assistance their countries provide.

Author: Marianna Fakhurdinova,
Expert at the New Europe Centre

European Pravda