Membership without protection: How Ukraine Can Deal with Obstacles On the Way to Joining the EU

What EU leading countries support Ukraine’s accession the most? What tasks Kyiv may receive in addition to the “homework” on 7 reforms?

In January-May 2023, representatives of the New Europe Centre paid a number of advocacy visits to the EU countries, including France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, and also to the U.S. (mostly with support of the International Renaissance Foundation).

We have tried to analyse and sum up the sentiment and narratives in these countries to gain a better understand of where Ukraine, both the official Kyiv and representatives of expert groups, needs to make additional efforts, and which approaches need to be changed.

In our previous article, we analysed how Ukraine should act to get an invitation to NATO.

This article discusses prospects and obstacles of our path towards the membership in the European Union.

Whose support is bigger?

Of all European countries surveyed, Italy has shown the biggest support of Ukraine’s joining the EU. Italy is the country, which during the tenure of Prime Minister Draghi was one of the leaders of supporting the EU candidate status (and the first country in Western Europe that clearly declared it). The fears that the Meloni government would not be supporting Ukraine have not been justified. The government has stressed that Meloni supported the policy of the former prime minister Draghi even despite being in opposition. Therefore, in issues related to Ukraine, Meloni office insists on the “perfect continuity” of the policy.

It is indicative that in the context of Ukraine, Meloni received favourable feedback even from representatives of the opposition and experts sceptical of the government.

The Netherlands, which was the last EU country to give the ‘green light’ to Ukraine’s candidate status, remains the most demanding country regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU.

As the founders of the European Union, something they are particularly proud of in the Hague, the Netherlands are very meticulous about the level of preparation of candidate countries and another EU expansion.

The Dutch are particularly distrustful of the assessments of the European Commission despite that DG Near, the department dealing specifically with Ukraine, is currently led by a Dutch diplomat.

There have been cases in the history of EU expansion, when the Netherlands attempted to make their own reports as an alternative to the reports of the European Commission. An attempt to obtain analysis of the situation from sources other than the European Commission is also observed at the moment.

Germany is also rather reserved when it comes to assessments of the European Commission. However, Germany, similar to France, is generally showing a change in the attitude towards Ukraine’s membership in the EU for the better.

Perhaps the most indicative moment in Germany was the fact that the clause about the future expansion of the European Union to not only the countries of the Western Balkans, but also Ukraine, Moldova and – in the longer term, Georgia – was included in the first National Security Strategy of Germany, which has been published recently in Berlin.As for France, despite the traditional position of Paris of “deepening and not expanding the EU”, the vision of this country of the future membership of Ukraine in the EU is changing to a more favourable one.

France is incredibly proud of the role of the country in Ukraine and Moldova’s receiving the status of candidates during the French presidency in the EU, and, as they claim, during the leadership of Paris. Today, they claim that at that time they had not yet realized how strategically correct this decision was. However, the French leadership understands it now, according to diplomats there.

Reforms: 7+1

The key attention in all the capital is drawn to Ukraine’s fulfilment of the seven recommendations Ukraine received together with the candidate status.

The position of these countries is that fulfilment of all these recommendations is not an automatic condition for the political decision to launch accession negotiations, but, should Ukraine succeed it will be difficult for the European Union to refuse to launch the negotiations.

The Netherlands, Germany, and France are very interested in the process of involving civil society in the accession process, because involved civil society is a “testament of a healthy democracy” according to a government official involved in the process. 

All three countries have not shown resistance to the idea of the political decision on launching entry negotiations as early as in 2023, however, there is a noticeable pessimism in the EU regarding Ukraine’s membership.

According to most opinions, the internal reform of the European Union should take place first.

Therefore, if Ukrainians want to join faster (provided they carry out their internal reforms), they have one more task, that is to convince the countries in Central Europe, particularly Poland and Baltic countries, which support Ukraine’s membership in the EU the most, to agree to the EU reform, which envisages a change in the voting system in favour of the qualified majority.

Also, an emphasis is made on the need of “fundamental reform of the agricultural policy of the EU” before Ukraine’s entry, considering our significant, albeit damaged during the war, agrarian potential. It has become rather clear during our latest advocacy visits that there is a somewhat different understanding of the “merit-based approach” in the EU capitals.

Ukrainians use this term not only in the context of the progress demonstrated by the candidate country, and also fair approach to the candidates on the part of the EU.

Conversely, the Dutch, French, and Germans indicate that “merit-based” applies only to the prior component, i.e., the progress of the candidate country, whereas the experience of the countries of the Western Balkans clearly shows that the entry process to the EU is equally about high level of responsibility and involvement of both parties.

Finally, in all capital, we have heard comments about counter productivity and impropriety of statements of certain Ukrainian politicians about Ukraine’s entry to the EU in two years.It would be in Ukraine’s interests to follow and communicate the following approach: no preferential treatment for the entry to the EU, only merit-based policy.

eurointegration.com.ua